Future shock? A more dangerous world looms, warns new report

“The unprecedented shift in relative wealth and economic power roughly from West to East now under way will continue.” – National Intelligence Council’s “Global Trends 2025” report.

RESEARCH TRIANGLE PARK, N.C. — Lenovo Chief Executive Officer William Amelio is a prescient fellow. Within hours of two speeches he gave about a “Global 2.0” world in which the U.S. is no longer a hegemon comes an alarming report from the National Intelligence Council about the world’s future.

Titled “Global Trends 2025,” the report is either discouraging or encouraging, depending on one’s point of view. Every business leader needs to read this report because it contains information that could prove to be crucial for survival in a global economy in which companies (at least in the U.S. and the rest of the West) increasingly say “no” to patriotism and “yes” to selling anything and almost everything worldwide while shifting jobs, technology and expertise to lower-cost centers for R&D and production.

If the end result is a weakened America but a stronger bottom line, have corporate executives sold out safety and affluence for fellow citizens at home for personal gain and corporate jets? Is it a better world if Communist China holds greater sway, with U.S. technology companies helping drive its space, military and industrial programs? Is it a better world in which a more powerful, czarist Russia is pandered to because of its energy abundance?

Certainly, the spread of jobs, education and economic development holds the potential for making a better world. But must more global affluence come at the expense of people at home? And can the world truly grow if the U.S. economy continues to struggle? Clearly, the spreading international recession shows that when the U.S. engine sputters, the worldwide bus in which everyone rides breaks down, too.

“Global Trends” is discouraging if one is proud of the U.S. and its role as a leader in free-enterprise and freedom around the world. If off-shoring of jobs and loss of U.S./Western leadership in technology is, in your view, a threat, the report is riveting.

“Global Trends” is encouraging if one doesn’t care for U.S. dominance and wants a multipolar world in which economic success isn’t necessarily linked to freedom. If you want to see China, India, Russia and Brazil battling the U.S. for global leadership, the report is downright exciting.

In the battle between civilizations, the East is winning, the report warns.

“The unprecedented shift in relative wealth and economic power roughly from West to East now under way will continue.”

The U.S. will lose its ability to be world decision-maker – but is the alternative better or worse?

“A global multipolar system is emerging with the rise of China, India, and others. The relative power of nonstate actors—businesses, tribes, religious organizations, and even criminal networks—also will increase.”

Interestingly – and in many cases, a frightening scenario – the report sees a more fractured world with China’s political structure as the one to emulate:

“By 2025 a single ‘international community’ composed of nation-states will no longer exist. Power will be more dispersed, with the newer players bringing new rules of the game while risks will increase that the traditional Western alliances will weaken. Rather than emulating Western models of political and economic development, more countries may be attracted to China’s alternative development model.

“As some countries become more invested in their economic well-being, incentives toward geopolitical stability could increase. However, the transfer is strengthening states like Russia that want to challenge the Western order.”

Other key points of the report, several of which include business and entrepreneurial opportunities:

“The United States will remain the single most powerful country but will be less dominant.”

“The pace of technological innovation will be key to outcomes during this period. All current technologies are inadequate for replacing traditional energy architecture on the scale needed.”

“Shrinking economic and military capabilities may force the US into a difficult set of tradeoffs between domestic versus foreign policy priorities.”

“Continued economic growth – coupled with 1.2 billion more people by 2025 – will put pressure on energy, food, and water resources.”

As for the threat of war and terrorism disappearing as U.S. power diminishes – well, they are not mutually exclusive, the report’s authors say.

“The potential for conflict will increase owing to rapid changes in parts of the greater Middle East and the spread of lethal capabilities. The need for the US to act as regional balancer in the Middle East will increase, although other outside powers—Russia, China and India—will play greater roles than today.

“Terrorism is unlikely to disappear by 2025, but its appeal could lessen if economic growth continues in the Middle East and youth unemployment is reduced. For those terrorists that are active, the diffusion of technologies will put dangerous capabilities within their reach.”

So what’s one to conclude – and more, importantly, do – after reading the report? The authors say:

“If you like where events seem to be headed, you may want to take timely action to preserve their positive trajectory. If you do not like where they appear to be going, you will have to develop and implement policies to change their trajectory.”

They call for leadership – something too often lacking in executive suites, in Washington, D.C., and in other global capitals these days.

"For example, the report’s examination of the transition out of dependence on fossil fuels illustrates how different trajectories will entail different consequences for specific countries,” the authors point out. “An even more important message is that leadership matters, no trends are immutable and timely and well-informed intervention can decrease the likelihood and severity of negative developments and increase the likelihood of positive ones.”

Leaders in business will continue to have opportunities to help shape the world for 2025. Let’s hope that the ones who prevail are those who value freedom and prosperity for all, not just the few.