IBM’s future view: A health crystal ball, talking Web – and Big Brother

RESEARCH TRIANGLE PARK, N.C. — Amid the economic doom and gloom, it’s nice to know IBM continues to spend time focused on R&D. Of course, that’s not to say the jobs developing these technologies will be based in the U.S., but Big Blue does see some blue skies of opportunity in its third annual “Next Five in Five” list.

Here’s a Christmas list for – hopefully – a better future:

• “Energy saving solar technology will be built into asphalt, paint and windows
• “You will have a crystal ball for your health
• “You will talk to the Web . . . and the Web will talk back
• “You will have your own digital shopping assistants
• “Forgetting will become a distant memory”

Going “green” gets personal at many levels, the IBM prognosticators say. Well, it must if we truly are to make more effective use of alternative energy. But the costs also must come down. We saw what $4 a gallon gas can do to the U.S. economy – wreck it. Pulitzer Prize winner Thomas Friedman wants the U.S. to impose a “carbon tax.” If so, we can forget an economic recovery. Will carbon offsets will really work? The Obama administration apparently plans to find out.

Here’s some of IBM’s “Five in Five” insight into solar building:

“In the next five years, solar energy will be an affordable option for you and your neighbors. Until now, the materials and the process of producing solar cells to convert (sunlight) into solar energy have been too costly for widespread adoption. But now this is changing with the creation of ‘thin-film’ solar cells, a new type of cost-efficient solar cell that can be 100 times thinner than silicon-wafer cells and produced at a lower cost.”

As for health, genomics offers much hope. A new report says cancer rates declined slightly between 2001-2005. If more people pay attention to their health because of genomic markers, maybe those rates will decline significantly. Wouldn’t that be wonderful?

“In the next five years, your doctor will be able to provide you with a genetic map that tells you what health risks you are likely to face in your lifetime and the specific things you can do to prevent them, based on your specific DNA – all for less than $200,” IBM says.

Sounds as if that would be $200 well spent.

As for voice interaction with the Web – I’m all for that, especially if this advance would get people to pay more attention to driving rather than handling their cell phones.

“New technology will change how people create, build and interact with information and e-commerce Web sites – using speech instead of text,” IBM says. “We know this can happen because the technology is available, but we also know it can happen because it must. In places like India, where the spoken word is more prominent than the written word in education, government and culture, 'talking' to the Web is leapfrogging all other interfaces, and the mobile phone is outpacing the PC.

“In the future, through the use of ‘VoiceSites,’ people without access to a personal computer and Internet, or who are unable to read or write, will be able to take advantage of all the benefits and conveniences the Web has to offer.”

Now about those digital shopping assistants. … Since I seldom buy new clothes, I’m not too excited about this one. But, hey, if you feel better about yourself by wearing outfits assembled by a Web widget, so be it.

“A combination of new technology and the next wave of mobile devices will give the in-store shopping experience a significant boost,” IBM says. “Fitting rooms soon will be outfitted with digital shopping assistants – touch screen and voice activated kiosks that will allow you to choose clothing items and accessories to complement, or replace, what you already selected. Once you make your selections, a sales associate is notified and will gather the items and bring them directly to you.”

I really like the IBM idea about helping my memory, which is reaching the advanced-seasoned stage.

In the next five years, "It will become much easier to remember what to buy at the grocery store, which errands need to be run, who you spoke with at a conference, where and when you agreed to meet a friend, or what product you saw advertised at the airport,” the Big Blue team says. “That's because such details of everyday life will be recorded, stored, analyzed and provided at the appropriate time and place by both portable and stationary smart appliances. To help make this possible, microphones and video cameras will record conversations and activities.

“The information collected will be automatically stored and analyzed on a personal computer. People can then be prompted to 'remember' what discussions they had, for example, with their daughter or doctor by telephone. Based on such conversations, smart phones equipped with global-positioning technology might also remind them to pick up groceries or prescriptions if they pass a particular store at a particular time.”

One problem here – Big Brother. Do we really want all this information recorded – by us or perhaps by someone else?

With that thought in mind, Happy Thanksgiving.